KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Drawdown plans announced
by the U.S. and more than a dozen other nations will shrink the foreign
military footprint in Afghanistan by 40,000 troops at the close of next year,
leaving Afghan forces increasingly on the frontlines of the decade-long war.
The United States is pulling out the most — 33,000
by the end of 2012. That's one-third of 101,000 American troops who were in
Afghanistan in June, the peak of U.S. military presence in the war, according
to figures provided by the Pentagon.
Others in the 49-nation coalition have announced
withdrawal plans too, while insisting they are not rushing to leave. Many
nations have vowed to keep troops in Afghanistan to continue training the
Afghan police and army in the years to come. And many have pledged to keep
sending aid to the impoverished country after the international combat mission
ends in 2014.
Still, the exit is making Afghans nervous.
They fear their nation could plunge into civil war
once the foreign forces go home. Their confidence in the Afghan security forces
has risen, but they don't share the U.S.-led coalition's stated belief that the
Afghan soldiers and police will be ready to secure the entire nation in three
years. Others worry the Afghan economy will collapse if foreigners leave and
donors get stingy with aid.
Foreign forces began leaving Afghanistan this year.
About 14,000 foreign troops will withdraw by the
end of December, according to an Associated Press review of more than a dozen
nations' drawdown plans. The United States is pulling out 10,000 service
members this year; Canada withdrew 2,850 combat forces this summer; France and
Britain will each send about 400 home; Poland is recalling 200; and Denmark and
Slovenia are pulling out about 120 combined.
Troop cutbacks will be deeper next year, when an
estimated 26,000 more will leave. That figure includes 23,000 Americans, 950
Germans, 600 more French, 500 additional Britons, 400 Poles, 290 Belgians, 156
Spaniards, 100 Swedes and 50 Finns.
Gen. James F. Amos, commandant of the Marine Corps,
told the AP that the number of Marines in Helmand province in southern
Afghanistan will drop "markedly" in 2012, and the role of those who
stay will shift from countering the insurgency to training and advising Afghan
security forces.
Amos declined to discuss the number of Marines
expected to leave in 2012.
There are now about 19,400 Marines in Helmand, and
that is scheduled to fall to about 18,500 by the end of this year.
"Am I OK with that? The answer is 'yes,'"
Amos said. "We can't stay in Afghanistan forever."
"Will it work? I don't know. But I know we'll
do our part."
Additional troop cuts or accelerated withdrawals
are possible.
Many other countries, including Hungary and Italy,
are finalizing their withdrawal schedules. Presidential elections in Europe and
the European debt crisis also could speed up the pullout. Australian Prime
Minister Julia Gillard said this week that Australia's training mission could
be completed before the 2014 target date.
Back in June, then-U.S. Defense Secretary Robert
Gates said that when the Obama administration begins pulling troops from
Afghanistan, the U.S. will resist a rush to the exists, "and we expect the
same from our allies." Gates said it was critically important that a plan
for winding down NATO's combat role by the end of 2014 did not squander gains
made against the Taliban that were won at great cost in lives and money.
"The more U.S. forces draw down, the more it
gives the green light for our international partners to also head for the
exits," said Jeffrey Dressler, a senior research analyst at the Institute
for the Study of War in Washington. "There is a cyclical effect here that
is hard to temper once it gets going."
U.S. Army Lt. Col. Jimmie Cummings Jr. said the
cutbacks that have been announced will not affect the coalition's ability to
fight the insurgency.
"We are getting more Afghans into the field
and we are transferring more responsibility to them in many areas,"
Cummings said, adding that many leaders of the Taliban, al-Qaida and the
Haqqani militant networks have been captured or killed.
Afghan security forces started taking the lead in
seven areas in July. They soon will assume responsibility for many more regions
as part of a gradual process that will put Afghans in charge of security across
the nation by the end of 2014.
Some countries are lobbying to start transition as
soon as possible in areas where they have their troops deployed — so they can
go home, said a senior NATO official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to
discuss transition. The official insisted that those desires were not driving
decisions on where Afghan troops are taking the lead.
The official said that because they want to leave,
a number of troop-contributing nations faced with declining public support at
home have started working harder to get their areas ready to hand off to Afghan
forces.
"The big question (after 2014) is if the
Afghan security forces can take on an externally based insurgency with support
from the Pakistani security establishment and all that entails," Dressler
said. "I think they will have a real challenge on their hands if the U.S.
and NATO countries do not address Pakistani sponsorship of these groups."
Lekic reported from Brussels. AP National Security
Writer Robert Burns in Helmand contributed to this report.
Copyright
2011 The Associated Press.
