ATLANTA (AP) — Yes, it could happen. But it's a
stretch.
"Contagion," a Hollywood thriller that
opened last weekend, rocketed to No. 1 at the box office through its gripping
tale of a fictional global epidemic driven by a new kind of virus. Audiences
have gasped in horror at what happens to Gwyneth Paltrow.
Before it was out, the movie made real-life disease
investigators anxious, too, though for a different reason: They had worried the
filmmakers would take so many artistic liberties with the science that the
result would be an incredible movie that was ... not credible.
Well, cue the applause.
"It's very plausible," said Dr. Thomas
Frieden, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which would
investigate such an outbreak.
A new virus jumping from animals to humans? Nothing
fictional about that. Global spread of a disease in a few days? In this age of
jet travel, absolutely. A societal meltdown if things get bad? Plan on it.
Yikes. The only bit of relief here is that several
experts think the odds are pretty long that a new virus could be both so deadly
and contagious at the same time.
The team behind the film used several expert
consultants and went to other lengths to get scientific details correct. That
included working with esteemed Columbia University epidemiologist Dr. W. Ian
Lipkin to create the fictional MEV-1 virus. It's modeled on the Nipah virus — a
dangerous bug first seen in Malaysia a dozen years ago that spread from pigs to
farmers.
Efforts also involved actress Kate Winslet sitting
down with a female CDC disease investigator so she could correctly copy such
things as the investigators clothes, mannerisms and even how the scientist
might wear her hair on a field assignment.
Overall health officials say they were very pleased
with what resulted. During an advance screening for CDC employees in Atlanta
last week, some in the audience laughed appreciatively to see visual details
and even lingo that they never imagined would be used in a mass-market motion
picture.
"It was very accurate. It kind of made us all
chuckle because there were things that we thought only people at CDC might
get," said Laura Gieraltowski, an expert in foodborne illnesses.
Indeed, CDC officials have embraced the film. The
agency allowed the movie's makers to film at their main campus — the first time
the agency has allowed a major motion picture studio such access. And CDC
officials have opened up their schedules for media interviews, panel
appearances and live Internet chats to talk about the movie and potential
real-life contagions.
It's a far better reception than their reaction to
"Outbreak," a popular 1995 movie starring Dustin Hoffman, the last
time Hollywood took a major stab at telling a story about a nation-threatening,
non-zombie epidemic. Like "Contagion," that film had a respected
director and an all-star cast, but the scientific miscues were laughable. Some
experts still shake their heads at how much time was spent finding an infected
monkey and how little time it took — seemingly just a few minutes — to make,
test and distribute a life-saving vaccine.
"Contagion" fares far better in the
experts' eyes. That said, the scenario painted in the new movie is also
considered highly unlikely. A thriller telling a complex story in roughly two
hours, it portrays some things that are doubtful at best. Among them:
—The government dispatches only one disease
investigator to Minnesota to check out the outbreak. In reality, the government
would throw a lot more people at an emerging problem like this. When the first
two swine flu cases were reported in San Diego in 2009, neither of them
fatalities, the CDC sent five such scientists along with other staff.
—The fictional virus kills more than 1 in 5 of the
people it infects. That's extremely high for an epidemic that goes global. The
infamous Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19 — used as the modern-day measuring
stick for a terrible international contagion — killed more like 1 in 100.
Something this deadly and fast-moving has never materialized, possibly because
a bug that kills too efficiently limits its ability to spread because its
victims don't have much time to make contact with many other people.
—When a vaccine is released to the public,
distribution of initially limited supplies was decided through a lottery based
on date of birth. In reality, health officials would prioritize vaccine for
people who were deemed most susceptible to the virus. Also at the head of the
line would be health-care workers and others essential to keeping emergency
response systems running. The movie didn't indicate measures like that.
—As a vaccine to protect against the new disease is
being developed, the movie seems to suggest that initial human testing of it
hinges largely on a CDC scientist injecting herself and then visiting her
diseased father's bedside to see if she gets sick. Officials say a more
realistic portrayal would show weeks or months of safety and effectiveness
testing in many thousands of volunteers.
Also, "we don't inject ourselves with
(experimental) vaccines," said Dr. Ermias Belay, a CDC official who
oversees lab scientists handling dangerous pathogens.
Lipkin was involved with the movie for years and
even reviewed film clips during production. When an Associated Press reporter
reviewed the list of unrealistic points with him, he responded; "It's a
movie."
But he also chafed at the idea that this kind of
global epidemic won't occur just because we haven't seen one before. "Nobody
expected Nipah. Nobody expected HIV. Nobody expected SARS," he said.
One other significant plot point seems pretty
implausible, too — how well the epidemic investigation goes.
When new infections start popping up in multiple
cities at about the same time, finding the origin can be a nearly impossible
task. Yet the movie's disease detectives zero in on the "index case"
very quickly.
"In a real-world investigation, that would be
a lucky guess," said Dr. Douglas Hamilton, who heads the CDC's Epidemic
Intelligence Service.
In their discussions about the movie this week,
some CDC officials are making a point of noting that recent budget cuts are
threatening their ability and that of state and local health departments to
respond as well as the movie portrays. Just one CDC investigator assigned to
the scene of a major outbreak?
"Maybe this reflects the future," said
Dr. Ali Khan, the agency's director of emergency preparedness.
Copyright
2011 The Associated Press.
