CHICAGO (AP) — Strong driver's license laws have
led to fewer fatal crashes among 16-year-olds but with a disturbing side effect
— more fatal accidents among 18-year-olds, a nationwide study found.
Many states require young drivers to get extensive
experience, including driving with an adult, before getting a full license. But
in most states those laws only apply to those younger than 18. The new study
suggests some teens are just putting off getting a license until they turn 18 —
meaning they have little experience and higher odds for a deadly crash.
"There's an incentive right now to skip out
and just wait until you're 18," said Scott Masten, the study's lead author
and a researcher with California's Department of Motor Vehicles. "In most
states you don't even need to have driver education or driver training" if
you obtain a license at 18, he said.
"I was actually bummed by my own findings — to
find out we're offsetting the benefits" in young drivers so much, he said.
"It was quite unexpected."
The study examined fatal crashes from 1986 to 2007
involving 16- to 19-year-olds. Results appear in Wednesday's Journal of the
American Medical Association.
Most previous studies have also linked graduated
licensing programs with a decline in fatal crash rates among young teens, but
evidence on effects in older teens is mixed.
A journal editorial by researchers with the
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety said the potential effects in older
teens "is a serious issue deserving attention by researchers and
policymakers." The editorial noted that New Jersey is one of the few
states where graduated driver's licensing restrictions apply to all first-time
applicants younger than 21. That has led to lower crash rates among 17- and 18-year-olds.
Whether these programs should be extended to
include older teens merits further study, the editorial said.
Every state has some type of graduated driver's
licensing program. These typically allow full, unrestricted licenses to kids
younger than 18 only after several months of learning while driving with an
adult, followed by unsupervised driving with limits on things like night
driving and the number of passengers.
Comparing states with the most restrictions versus
those with the weakest laws or no restrictions, there were 26 percent fewer
fatal crashes involving 16-year-old drivers; but among 18-year-old drivers,
there were 12 percent more fatal crashes. The differences are estimates, taking
into account factors that would also influence fatal crash rates, including
seatbelt laws, changes in minimum speed limits, and the fact that 18-year-old drivers
outnumber 16-year-old drivers..
The programs appeared to have no effect on fatal
crash rates for drivers aged 17 and 19.
Researchers estimate that since the first graduated
licensing program began in 1996, the programs have been associated with 1,348
fewer fatal crashes involving 16-year-old drivers but with 1,086 more fatal
crashes involving 18-year-old drivers.
During the 1986-2007 study, there were nearly
132,000 fatal crashes of drivers aged 16 to 19. Nearly 20 percent involved
16-year-old drivers, while almost 30 percent involved 18-year-olds.
Evidence suggests that many teens are waiting until
they're older to get their licenses; in California for example, only 13 percent
of 16-year-olds have driver's licenses, Masten said.
In a nationwide survey of almost 1,400 teens
published last month in the journal Traffic Injury Prevention, 1 in 4 who were
18 and hadn't obtained a license cited the hassle of licensing requirements as
a reason.
Masten said more research is needed to determine
why the fatal crash rate among 18-year-olds rose and whether an increase also
occurred in nonfatal crashes.
The study confirms that graduated licensing
"is doing what it was intended to do — prevent novice drivers from being
in high-risk conditions before they're ready for it," said Dr. Flaura
Winston, a pediatrician and traffic injury expert at the Children's Hospital of
Philadelphia. But the results also show there's a need for strategies for the
novice independent driver at any age, she said.
Copyright 2011 The Associated Press.
(AP
Photo/The Reporter, Rick Roach)
