WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama is set to announce a blueprint for bringing U.S. troops home from Afghanistan that is expected to reduce the number of troops by up to 5,000 next month, as well as a broader plan for recalling the rest of the 30,000 surge forces he sent there in 2009.
The plan Obama will announce in a speech Wednesday
is designed to put the U.S. on a path toward giving Afghans control of their
own security by 2014.
Obama was given a range of options for the
withdrawal last week by Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. and NATO commander in
Afghanistan. The military favors a gradual reduction in troops but other
advisers are advocating a significant decrease in the coming months.
The president has said he favors a significant
withdrawal, his advisers have not quantified that statement.
At a democratic fundraiser in Washington Monday
night, Obama said that by the end of the year, "we will be transitioning
in Afghanistan to turn over more and more security to the Afghan people."
Following the announcement on the drawdown, Obama
will visit troops Thursday at Fort Drum, the upstate New York military base
that is home to the 10th Mountain Division, one of the most frequently deployed
divisions to Afghanistan and Iraq.
While much of the attention is focused on how many
troops will leave Afghanistan next month, the more telling aspects of Obama's
decision center on what happens after July, particularly how long the president
plans to keep the surge forces in the country.
Obama is expected to at least map out the initial
withdrawal of the surge troops when he addresses the public. But whether those
forces should come out over the next eight to 12 months or slowly trickle out
over a longer time is hotly debated.
Military commanders want to keep as many of those
forces in Afghanistan for as long as possible, arguing that too fast a
withdrawal could undermine the fragile security gains in the fight against the
Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, the al-Qaida training ground for the Sept.
11 attacks. There are also concerns about pulling out a substantial number of
U.S. forces as the heightened summer fighting season gets under way.
Retiring Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said he
believes the initial drawdown should be "modest."
But other advisers are backing a more significant
withdrawal that starts in July and proceeds steadily through the following
months. That camp believes the slow yet steady security gains in Afghanistan,
combined with the death of Osama bin Laden and U.S. success in dismantling much
of the al-Qaida network in the country, give the president an opportunity to
make larger reductions this year.
There is also growing political pressure on Capitol
Hill for a more significant withdrawal. Twenty-seven senators, Democrats as
well as Republicans, sent Obama a letter last week pressing for a shift in
Afghanistan strategy and major troop cuts.
"Given our successes, it is the right moment
to initiate a sizable and sustained reduction in forces, with the goal of
steadily redeploying all regular combat troops," the senators wrote.
"The costs of prolonging the war far outweigh the benefits."
Arizona Sen. John McCain, the top Republican on the
Senate Armed Services Committee, differed with that assessment. He told ABC's
"Good Morning America" on Tuesday that he agreed with Gates in hoping
the withdrawal would be "modest."
"I believe that one more fighting season and
we can get this thing pretty well wrapped up," McCain said.
There is broad public support for starting to
withdraw U.S. troops. According to an Associated Press-GfK poll last month, 80
percent of Americans say they approve of Obama's decision to begin withdrawal
of combat troops in July and end U.S. combat operations in Afghanistan by 2014.
Just 15 percent disapprove.
Obama has tripled the number of U.S. forces in
Afghanistan since taking office, bringing the total there to about 100,000. The
30,000-troop surge he announced at the end of 2009 came with the condition that
he would start bringing forces home in July 2011.
The president took months to settle on the surge
strategy. This time around, aides say the process is far less formal and Obama
is far more knowledgeable about the situation in Afghanistan than he was in
2009, his first year in office.
Aides say Obama won't be overhauling the U.S.
strategy in Afghanistan as he starts the drawdown. Instead, they say he sees it
as a critical part of the process to end the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan
by the end of 2014 and turn security responsibility over to the Afghans.
On a trip to Afghanistan earlier this month, Gates
advocated for a comprehensive decision from the president.
"I think to make a decision on July in
complete isolation from anything else has no strategic meaning," Gates
said. "And so part of that has to be kind of, what's the book end? Where
are we headed? What's the ramp look like?"
Gates is retiring from the Pentagon June 30.
There are also indications that the administration,
having learned from the U.S. experience in Iraq, will set deadline dates for
the drawdown as it progresses, in order to keep pressure on the Afghans and
give Congress mileposts.
With Iraq as a blueprint, commanders will need time
to figure out what they call "battlefield geometry" — what types of
troops are needed where. Those could include trainers, intelligence officers,
special operations forces, various support units — from medical and
construction to air transport — as well as combat troops.
Much of that will depend on where the Afghan
security forces are able to take the lead, as well as the state of the
insurgency. Part of the debate will also require commanders to determine the
appropriate ratio of trainers versus combat troops.
Associated Press writer Lolita C. Baldor and Robert
Burns contributed to this report.
Copyright
2011 The Associated Press.
(AP
Photo/Charles Dharapak, File)
