WASHINGTON (AP) — No guts, no glory.
The nail-biting, 40-minute clandestine operation
that resulted in Osama bin Laden's death could have been a calamitous political
and military failure; a bloodbath in Pakistan that left U.S. forces and scores
of civilians dead or captured by America's most ferocious enemy.
Or, as it happened, it could unfold largely in
textbook fashion — delivering a stunning success for the often maligned
intelligence community, a political and national security coup for a struggling
president and revenge for Americans still carrying vivid memories of Sept. 11.
By secretly sending a team of special operations
forces into an enemy fortress in a suburban neighborhood of a sovereign country,
President Barack Obama chose the path of greatest risk, but also greatest
reward.
There were so many ways it could have gone wrong.
As U.S. officials evaluated their options, Obama
asked for a gut check from top members of his national security team.
The various plans, White House counterterror chief
John Brennan said, were "debated across the board and the president wanted
to make sure, at the end, that he had the views of all."
The level of risk stretched from moderate to
massive.
"When you go into something like this, there
are no guarantees," said Dick Couch, a Navy SEAL during the Vietnam War
who later worked for the CIA. "There's the fog of war. Things go wrong
that you don't really plan or intend."
Bin Laden might not have been there, the commandos
could have run into stiff resistance or hidden explosives, or U.S. troops might
have been detected by Pakistani forces who could have taken action against
them, Couch said in a phone interview Tuesday. "They have to plan ahead
and account for as many of these contingencies as possible," he added.
"But you can't take all the risk out of it."
An airstrike, like the one that killed al-Qaida in
Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in an Iraq safe house in June 2006, could be
done quickly, from a drone or bomber far away, generating little risk for U.S.
troops. In that operation, U.S. special operations forces went in after the
F-16 strike and collected documents, electronic storage devices and weapons
that were hidden under the floorboards in the building.
But that safe house was in a war zone where U.S.
forces where already engaged.
Still, a bombing brings its own shortcomings: a
misfire, an aircraft problem, the potential for widespread civilian casualties
and difficulty in identifying enemy remains.
Putting troops on the ground in Pakistan was by far
the most dangerous option, both militarily and politically.
While an ally, Pakistan is a sovereign nation that
has complained bitterly about U.S. drone strikes targeting insurgents within
its borders. And Islamabad officials have strongly resisted having U.S. combat
troops on Pakistani soil.
Obama knew that anything short of a clean and
victorious mission would have dire consequences, further eroding an already
tenuous relationship with Pakistan during a critical period of the Afghanistan
war. The U.S. needs Pakistan's assistance rooting out terrorists along the
border and helping to prevent militants from crossing into Afghanistan as they
become more active in the warmer spring weather.
At the same time, a helicopter assault that dropped
elite commandos into the bin Laden compound forced them into direct combat,
putting American lives in greater danger and presenting a greater risk of
aircraft or equipment failures.
It also required exhaustive planning and training,
which provided greater chances for information to leak out over the ensuing
months, scuttling the mission and sending bin Laden deeper into hiding.
The benefits, however, were too rich to ignore.
With a precision assault, there would be much greater certainty they would
positively identify bin Laden — a linchpin for success. It also reduced the
risk of mass civilian casualties and dramatically increased the opportunity to
gather what officials call a treasure trove of documents and intelligence.
As he reviewed the options, Obama had history to
consider. As some of his predecessors can attest, these are the missions that
can define a presidency.
President Jimmy Carter's failed re-election bid was
blamed in part on the disastrous attempt to rescue American hostages from the
U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1980. Eight American troops were killed when a
special operations aircraft collided with a Navy helicopter at a rendezvous
point in the desert on their way to the embassy.
And in the 1993 Battle of Mogadishu, made famous in
the movie "Black Hawk Down," two helicopters were shot down and 18
American soldiers were killed during a U.S. mission to snatch a Somali clan
warlord. The same kind of helicopters were used in the bin Laden raid.
The images of gunmen dragging the bodies of U.S.
soldiers through Mogadishu's dusty streets became an icon for those opposed to
U.S. involvement overseas. President Bill Clinton ordered a U.S. withdrawal and
promised to never again deploy troops unless there was a clear U.S. national
interest.
Associated Press writers Pauline Jelinek and Robert
Burns contributed to this report.
Copyright
2011 The Associated Press.
